Probability of Winning

AI has made it easier than ever to flood the market with proposals, but volume alone doesn't drive growth. To win consistently, teams need a rigorous, defensible way to measure their Probability of Win.This webinar explores the intersection of traditional capture management and modern AI tools. We’ll show you how to ground your Probability of Win in verifiable evidence, identify competitive gaps early, and elevate your human-led strategy. Discover why a defensible Probability of Win is the most important metric in your growth arsenal.

What you will learn:

• How  to calculate a defensible Probability of Win: what Probability of Win is, the methods teams use, and the Shipley win factors that turn a gut-feel number into an evidence-based score.
• Breaking the 40% Rule: how to identify and strip away the optimism bias that quietly distorts most Probability of Win scores, using Shipley's own benchmarks.
• Augmented capture management: where AI actually belongs, grounding your score in verifiable evidence, surfacing competitive gaps before you commit dollars, and elevating human strategy to raise your win rate.

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Join Shipley and Federal Publications Seminars (FPS) for an exclusive webinar on Pricing to Win, our strategic approach to building competitive, compelling pricing that aligns with customer value. Discover how to leverage competitive intelligence, assess rival positions, and understand the price/capability trade-offs that drive winning bids.

Our panelist will be Scott Holden, CPA. Scott has 20 years as a licensed CPA, 25 years as a Certified Management Accountant (CMA), and 30 years of experience in GovCon pricing, cost estimating, and accounting. This includes 21 years at Northrop Grumman, where he retired as a senior executive, pricing highly complex and competitive bids. Scott holds a BA and Master of Accountancy from Utah State and Weber State Universities. He is the founder of Competitive Geometries, LLC, a pricing consultancy firm.

This webinar will be co-facilitated by Shipley’s SVP of Professional Services, Nia Mahallati, and Federal Publications Seminars (FPS). FPS is a firm with 65 years of experience in GovCon pricing training. Shipley will also be providing a Price to Win course at FPS’ GovCon and FAR Conference in Hilton Head on July 28–29 (click here to register)

This webinar is a must-attend for anyone looking to learn about GovCon pricing techniques. Key takeaways include:

• Gaining insights from experts in government contract procurement and pricing

• Understanding how to position your pricing strategy to win

• Strengthening the pricing component of your next strategic pursuit

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Join the webinar as our panel discusses key aspects of a Pwin assessment, including key opportunity decision gates. The panel will also explore ways to positively impact your Pwin on any pursuit. Register and submit your questions in advance of the webinar.