Probability of Win in the Age of AI: Stop Bidding Blind, Start Winning More
October 21, 2026
AI has made it easier than ever to flood the market with proposals, but volume alone doesn't drive growth. To win consistently, teams need a rigorous, defensible way to measure their Probability of Win.This webinar explores the intersection of traditional capture management and modern AI tools. We’ll show you how to ground your Probability of Win in verifiable evidence, identify competitive gaps early, and elevate your human-led strategy. Discover why a defensible Probability of Win is the most important metric in your growth arsenal.
What you will learn:
- How to calculate a defensible Probability of Win: what Probability of Win is, the methods teams use, and the Shipley win factors that turn a gut-feel number into an evidence-based score.
- Breaking the 40% Rule: how to identify and strip away the optimism bias that quietly distorts most Probability of Win scores, using Shipley's own benchmarks.
- Augmented capture management: where AI actually belongs, grounding your score in verifiable evidence, surfacing competitive gaps before you commit dollars, and elevating human strategy to raise your win rate.